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OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE • UNCLASSIFIED • FOR OFFICIAL USE

CBRN WATCH

Open Source Intelligence Monitor

Real-time monitoring and AI-driven analysis of Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear threats across 36 countries. Designed for government decision-makers, defence analysts, and national security professionals.

LIVE | LOADING...
177 Sources
192 Facilities
— Signals
36 Countries
288 Cycles / Day
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Operational Alert Level

Understanding the OAL Scale

The Operational Alert Level is the platform's master threat indicator. It is derived from all 177 active intelligence sources across 7 reliability rings, recomputed every 5 minutes across 288 daily collection cycles. Every score change is traceable to specific signals.

1
Minimal
Baseline monitoring. No elevated indicators across any domain.
2
Elevated
Increased signal activity detected. One or more domains showing above-baseline readings.
3
High
Significant threat indicators. Multiple corroborating signals across domains.
4
Severe
Imminent threat conditions. Cross-domain escalation with high-confidence signals.
5
Critical
Active CBRN event in progress or confirmed. Maximum alert across all systems.
Threat Domains

The Four CBRN Domains

Every signal ingested by the platform is classified into one of four threat domains. Each domain maintains its own independent threat score (0–100), computed from domain-specific indicators and weighted by source reliability.

☣
Chemical
—
Threat Score

Monitoring chemical weapons use, precursor procurement, industrial accidents, and CW convention violations. Covers Syria, Yemen, and dual-use chemical facilities globally.

CW Use Precursors OPCW Industrial
🦠
Biological
—
Threat Score

Tracking outbreak detection, dual-use research, syndromic surveillance, and bioweapons programme indicators. Integrates WHO IHR, ProMED, CDC wastewater, and ECDC feeds.

Outbreaks DURC BWC Syndromic
☢
Radiological
—
Threat Score

Sensor network anomalies, dirty bomb indicators, orphan source tracking, and nuclear accident radiological fallout. EURDEP network with 5,500 stations across 36 countries.

Sensors EURDEP Dirty Bomb Fallout
⚛
Nuclear
—
Threat Score

Nuclear proliferation, weapons testing, facility monitoring, treaty compliance, and enrichment programme activity. Covers Iran, DPRK, Russia, and Syria.

Proliferation IAEA Testing Enrichment
Technical Architecture

5-Layer Intelligence Pipeline

Raw data passes through five processing layers before reaching the dashboard. Each layer adds structure, context, and confidence scoring. No AI verdict is accepted without a traceable evidence chain.

01

Collection

177 sources across 7 reliability rings are polled in 288 daily cycles. Each source is rated using NATO A–F reliability grades. A circuit breaker (CLOSED → OPEN → HALF-OPEN) protects against cascading failures. Ring 7 sources going offline is itself treated as an intelligence signal.

177 Sources 7 Rings 288 Cycles/Day Circuit Breaker
02

Classification

Every raw item is sanitised through a 10-step armorString() pipeline, then classified by CBRN domain (C/B/R/N), geo-tagged to known entities, and assigned a NATO reliability rating. A provenanceHash (djb2a fingerprint) deduplicates signals across sources.

armorString() Domain Tagging Geo-Entity Matching provenanceHash
03

Scoring & Convergence

Domain-specific threat scores (0–100) are computed using weighted signal aggregation. Source reliability, signal freshness, and cross-domain correlation are factored in. 300–800 raw items per cycle converge to 20–80 actionable CBRN signals.

Weighted Scoring Cross-Domain Fusion 300–800 → 20–80 Signals
04

OAL Computation

The Operational Alert Level (1–5) is derived from the composite threat matrix. Domain interactions are evaluated — a simultaneous spike in Nuclear + Radiological signals is weighted more heavily than either alone. Every OAL change is traceable to specific signals.

OAL 1–5 Domain Interaction Traceable Verdicts
05

AI Narrative & Geospatial

A 3-tier LLM fallback chain (GPT-4.1 → Gemini 2.5 → Template) generates structured intelligence briefs under RAG constraints — the model can only reference ingested signals, preventing hallucination. All geo-tagged signals are plotted on the Facility Atlas (192 sites, 36 countries).

3-Tier LLM RAG Constraints 192 Facilities No Hallucination
Data Sources

7 Rings of Intelligence

Sources are organised into concentric reliability rings. Ring 7 (official government and IGO feeds) carries the highest confidence. Ring 1 (academic and think-tank research) provides strategic depth. Each ring contributes a different intelligence dimension.

7
A–B
Official Government & IGO
19 sources — Verified

WHO · IAEA · OPCW · CTBTO · ECDC · NRC · UNODA · NNSA · FDA · CDC · GDACS · NASA FIRMS · ReliefWeb · USGS · Safecast · OpenAQ · ProMED · CDC Wastewater · NASA Earthdata

6
B–C
Specialist News & Analysis
42 sources — Confirmed

BBC · Al Jazeera · Arms Control Association · CIDRAP · NTI · Bellingcat · SIPRI · Janes Defence · 38 North · Reuters · AP · and 31 more

5
C
Open Web Search
13 sources — Reported

Google News CBRN queries across Nuclear, Biological, Chemical, and Radiological keyword clusters

4
D
Social Media OSINT
19 sources — Unconfirmed

Twitter/X CBRN keyword monitoring for early-warning indicators

3
B
Environmental & Physical Sensors
5 sources — Sensor Data

USGS Seismic · EURDEP Radiation (5,500 stations) · Open-Meteo Air Quality · Safecast · Open-Meteo Weather

2
D–E
Behavioural & Predictive
18 sources — Predictive

Google Trends fear signals — iodine tablet demand, hazmat suit searches, Cipro/Doxycycline purchase spikes, gas mask queries

1
B–C
Academic & Think Tank
15 sources — Research

RAND · CSIS · FAS Nuclear · Bulletin of Atomic Scientists · Pandora Report · CRS Reports · and 9 more

System Ready

All Five Intelligence Layers Active

177 Sources Online
192 Facilities Tracked
36 Countries Monitored
288 Daily Cycles
Threat Posture
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LIVE
Loading live incident feed...
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THREAT
LOADING...
OAL 5 --:--:-- UTC
Initializing threat assessment across all CBRN domains...
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Sources
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Signals
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Threats
192
Facilities
36
Countries
Nuclear
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Biological
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Chemical
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Radiological
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Situation Brief
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Analyzing CBRN intelligence landscape...
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Action Required
0
No alerts requiring action
Latest Intelligence
Loading OSINT feeds...
Detection & Predictions
Signal Verdict
SCANNING...
Confidence--%
Algorithms--
Data Points--
Top Concern--
Loading predictions...
Threat Map
Facility Atlas
Sensors
Trends
AI Intel
OAL Status
CBRN WATCH v15.0 | Open Source CBRN Intelligence Monitor | 119 Data Sources | 192 Facilities | 36 Countries | Press ? for shortcuts
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